The AFC East in 2023 might as well be considered the most dangerous division in the entire NFL. The New York Jets added four-time MVP in quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Buffalo Bills bring back all of their key pieces, the Miami Dolphins got healthier, and the New England Patriots are a threat any time Bill Belichick wears the headset (and hoodie) for them. This mix makes the AFC East odds for 2023 very interesting.

Last season, two teams in the AFC East made the playoffs: the Bills and the Dolphins. Buffalo won the division with a 13-3 record and went 4-2 against teams in the division. Meanwhile, Miami finished 9-8, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed four games due to head injuries. 

New England finished 8-9 while New York finished 7-10. The race for wild card spots from teams in the AFC East was intense. The Jets were in solid playoff position before a late-season collapse. Buffalo, however, controlled and defended its division title.

Fast forward to today: Buffalo remains the favorite on FanDuel to take home the division crown. However, the odds for the teams that will win the race are a lot closer than you might think.

Buffalo Bills+130
New York Jets+250
Miami Dolphins+290
New England Patriots+750
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Why the Bills Will Prove the AFC East Odds True and Win the Division

Buffalo is a Super Bowl contender as long as Josh Allen is the quarterback of that football team. The Bills have suffered through a lot of heartbreaking losses with Sean McDermott as the head coach and Allen under center. The Bills seemingly have had trouble beating the Chiefs and Bengals in the playoffs recently.

As for the AFC East, Buffalo lost to Miami by two points early in the season and New York by three in November. Those were the only two losses to AFC opponents that the Bills suffered. The Dolphins are healthier and the Jets have a lot more weapons on offense this year than last, but Buffalo can compete against the other threats in the division.

With Allen healthy, wide receiver Stefon Diggs in the lineup, and veteran edge rusher Von Miller returning to the field, Buffalo will be in contention to win on a weekly basis. It is safe to bet on the Bills to win the AFC East once again.

Why the NY Jets Will Win the AFC East

When discussing the Jets’ outlook in 2023, it is hard to not talk about the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers. The former Green Bay Packer has an innate ability to elevate the offense around him. Rodgers has playoff experience, has a Super Bowl title to his name, and is hungry for more. If you’re a Jets fan, how can you not think New York will win the division?

Running back Breece Hall returns to the backfield after suffering a season-ending injury a year ago, and Garrett Wilson aims to build on his 1,000-yard rookie campaign from 2022. Plus, Rodgers brought Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb from the Packers to the Jets with him. There’s familiarity and youth all over Rodgers, which is exactly what the veteran signal caller needs to succeed. 

The defense remains intact for the Jets, with Sauce Gardner entering his second season after winning AP Defensive Rookie of the Year. Additionally, defensive lineman Quinnen Williams recently signed an extension to become one of the highest-paid defensive linemen in football.

The hype around the Jets is legit, and betting on New York to win the division at +250 isn’t bad value at all.

Why the Dolphins or Patriots Will Defy the Odds in the AFC East

The Patriots at +750 makes them seem like true underdogs in the race. Mac Jones has not shown much as the franchise’s starting quarterback, and New England has not been the same since Tom Brady left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But the Pats spent a large portion of 2021 looking like the best team in the division, so don’t count the Pats out.

That leaves the Dolphins. Miami boasts one of the best defenses in football and the best wide receiving core in the game. If Tagovailoa can stay healthy, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle continue to perform at high levels, then this Dolphins offense can be dangerous. The health factor is a big one though for Miami.

The AFC East is a packed division, and the two teams that reside in New York are the ones leading the charge.

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