The Buffalo Bills had one of the more eventful NFL seasons in recent memory in 2022. Super Bowl favorites for much of the year, the Bills endured weather issues that moved a home game and the near-tragic collapse of safety Damar Hamlin due to cardiac arrest in a key Monday night matchup in Cincinnati in Week 17.
That game was canceled at the time of the incident and not made up. Without a chance to earn the top seed in a bye in the first round of the AFC playoffs, the Bills narrowly survived an opening-round matchup against Miami before losing at home in the snow to the Bengals in the second round.
The Bills will be hoping for a less dramatic 2023, and while it feels like they weren’t quite as explosive last year as they were in 2020 and ’21, Buffalo remains among the favorites to win the Lombardi trophy this February (+900 at NY sportsbook FanDuel). Meanwhile, we’re looking at five Bills prop bets that could be money as the season goes along.
Bills Prop Bet #1: Take Buffalo in Week 1
While not technically a Bills prop bet, since Week 1 is more than two months away, we can consider this a prop of sorts. Anyway, the Bills are the opponent for the new-look New York Jets with quarterback Aaron Rodgers. They open the Monday Night Football schedule at MetLife Stadium.
At NY sportsbook Caesars, the Bills are 1-point favorites in that contest. It’s commonly figured that home-field is worth about a field goal in the NFL, so at a neutral site, this would be a 4-point spread in favor of the Bills. But with all of the hype and attention given to the Jets, along with playing in the top media market in the country in New York, you can figure that the line is bumped a couple more points in the Jets’ favor.
It often works to be contrarian in these situations, so that leads us to backing the Bills. Buffalo is also 5-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last six against the Jets–but the Jets did win last year’s game at MetLife, 20-17.
The Bills also played against Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers last season. In a 27-17 Bills win, Rodgers went 19-of-30 for 203 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. The Bills raced out to a 24-7 halftime lead in that one.
Bills Prop Bet #2: Over 10.5 Wins
Over-under win total bets are always a popular wager each year for all teams. With a number of 10.5 at BetMGM, the over seems like a solid prop-bet pick for the Bills. Buffalo has won at least 10 games in each of the past four seasons. Even with a game being canceled last year, the Bills still ended up 13-3.
Their win total number in 2022 was 11.5. The number likely dropped due to the Jets adding Rodgers and the Miami Dolphins continuing to improve. But the Bills were 1-1 against both of those teams last year, so they wouldn’t be gaining or losing ground if they go 1-1 against them again.
After the Monday night opener at the Jets, the Bills have seven-straight games in which they should be favored. There are three difficult road games in November and December: at Cincinnati, at Philadelphia, and at Kansas City. Even if they went 0-3 in those games and went 1-1 against the Jets and Dolphins, it seems unlikely that the Bills would lose an additional two games to drop below the 10.5 total.
Bills Prop Bet #3: Buffalo to Win AFC East
Here are the odds for the AFC East at FanDuel.
|TEAM TO WIN AFC EAST||ODDS|
|New York Jets||+250|
|New England Patriots||+750|
We’ve talked about the Jets improving, but from top to bottom, Buffalo is the better team. The Dolphins beefed up their defense by adding Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator and acquiring cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa remains an injury concern thanks to three concussions he suffered last year that had him briefly contemplating retirement.
New England doesn’t appear to have the offensive weaponry to compete with the other three teams in the division. So to get the Bills at plus money here is good value.
Prop Bet #4: Diggs and Davis 20+ Combined Receiving TDs
Here’s a Bills prop bet on DraftKings that provides a nice return at +400. Last year, top wide receiver options Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis combined for 18 touchdowns. Diggs had 11, and Davis had seven.
We expect Diggs to at least equal his performance from last year. That leaves Davis having to improve by at least two scores. After the divisional round game at Kansas City following the 2021 season where Davis had four touchdown catches, big things were expected in ’22. While Davis didn’t have a game like that, perhaps expectations were too high. He did catch seven touchdowns on 836 yards, which was a 300-yard improvement over his ’21 regular season. Now entering his fourth year, we believe he’s poised to make a leap into 1,000-yard, double-digit TD territory.