The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have found their way to each other yet again.
For the third time in the last four playoffs — and seventh time overall since 2020 — the two AFC powerhouses will collide. Two preseason Super Bowl favorites are meeting once again. That isn’t a surprise.
The difference this time is that for the first time in the postseason, the game will be contested at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. In fact, it’s the first time that Patrick Mahomes will be playing a playoff game on the road.
There have already been two firsts for Mahomes this postseason. He played on Wild Card weekend for the first time in his career last week, and now he has his first road game. Mahomes has also never missed the AFC Championship game since becoming the Chiefs starter in 2018. The Bills will look to end that streak.
NY sportsbooks also favor the Bills, but it could be a tight one this Sunday evening. We have a look at the Chiefs vs. Bills odds and our best bets to go with it.
Bills on the Moneyline
For most of the week, this game has sat at -2.5 in favor of Buffalo. It’s starting to creep up to -3 at some NY sportsbooks, which takes some value away if the Bills win by a field goal.
When these teams met in Week 14, the Bills were literally fighting to keep their season alive. While it turned out that they could afford one more loss, they weren’t assured of that until around 4 p.m. on Week 18 when Jacksonville lost at Tennessee. The Chiefs, meanwhile, were coming off losses to Philadelphia and Green Bay and were looking for a signature win.
They almost got it in the most exciting way possible.
Of course, the Chiefs know how to win in the playoffs. Last week showed that. But Buffalo has been playing with a sense of urgency for a couple of months now. They haven’t blinked in big moments. And we haven’t seen how these Chiefs will operate on the road in the postseason. For these reasons, we’re favoring a Bills win here (-145 at Caesars).
Chiefs vs. Bills Prop Bet: Sorry, Josh Allen
Last week against the Steelers, Josh Allen accounted for four touchdowns. Even more important for playoff success, Allen didn’t turn the ball over. But even through the Bills’ winning ways, Allen was throwing interceptions. In fact, he had 18 on the year and didn’t throw one to the other team in just three games.
Fortunately, we didn’t suggest this bet last week. It was available, and the NY sportsbooks cleaned up.
The Steelers’ defense was sound, but Allen was not pressured into making risky throws in the 31-17 win. Expect him to take more chances against the Chiefs. That’s what makes Allen who he is. Often times, his risks pay off. But they may not on one or two occasions. For that, we can’t pass up even money on Josh Allen OVER 0.5 interceptions (-110 at DraftKings).
Don’t Expect as Many Points as You’d Think
The Chiefs have struggled offensively all season. They’ve scored at least three touchdowns in just five of their games. In last week’s 26-9 win over Miami, Kansas City had to settle for four short field goals in the win. In half of Mahomes’ regular-season starts this year, the Chiefs scored fewer than 20 points.
In the last three regular-season meetings between these teams, the score was under the total. That includes this year’s 20-17 Bills win. In Buffalo’s six-game winning streak that dates back to that Chiefs win, the Bills’ defense has not allowed more than two touchdowns in any of them.
Last year showed us to respect the Chiefs’ defense as well, but Steve Spagnolu’s side is playing some locked-in football. After a 27-19 loss in Green Bay in Week 13, KC’s “D” hasn’t allowed a team to break 20* against them. We’re using an asterisk here because in the 20-14 Christmas Day loss to Las Vegas, both Raiders touchdowns were of the defensive variety.
The offenses get all the headlines in this matchup thanks to the star power at quarterback, but recent history says to not expect as many points as you might think. We are confidently taking Chiefs-Bills UNDER 46 (-110 at PointsBet).