Following a disappointing performance from frontrunner Josh Allen, the NFL MVP odds race has tightened across the board, opening the door for sleepers and longshots.
As the National Football League shifts closer to the stretch run of the 2022 season, sportsbooks in New York and across the country continually adjust the odds boards for various futures. Among the most popular futures wager is for the NFL’s top postseason award, the MVP. For weeks, the NFL MVP odds board featured a clear frontrunner in this race. But heading into Week 10, things have changed considerably.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen stood as the consensus favorite for this honor throughout the first half of the season. But Allen’s subpar performance in Week 9 signaled to sportsbooks that their odds boards needed some adjustment. Over at DraftKings, Allen’s NFL MVP odds faded from +125 to +300, the longest they’ve been since Week 3.
Here’s a look at the updated NFL MVP odds heading toward Week 10.
Best NFL MVP Odds Through Week 9
The Bills dropped a difficult divisional game to the New York Jets on Sunday, despite being double-digit favorites on the road. Allen submitted his worst performance of the season, completing 18 of 34 pass attempts for 205 yards, a season-low, and two interceptions. He did rush for a season-high 86 yards and scored twice on the ground, but Buffalo still lost 20-17.
Allen remains one of the best quarterbacks in the league, no doubt, but his uneven play of late has led to fading odds in this MVP race. The fifth-year signal caller criticized his own play following the loss.
DraftKings moved Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts into the pole position following his impressive performance in Week 9. Hurts helped Philadelphia stay unbeaten, completing 21-of-27 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns. He now sports a solid 12-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has tallied 326 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns as well. As long as the Eagles remain undefeated, Hurts will be near or at the top of NFL MVP odds boards.
Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, has rebounded from his early season fading. Following Kansas City’s loss to the Bills in Week 6, Mahomes saw odds as long as +550. Since then, he’s thrust his name back into the conversation with a string of impressive performances. Against the Titans in Week 9, Mahomes accounted for over 500 scrimmage yards in an overtime win. He leads the league in passing yards (2.605) and TD passes (21).
Sleepers and Longshots to Consider in NFL MVP Odds Race
|Best NFL MVP Odds
|Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
|Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
|Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
|Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Two sleepers have maintained valuable positions on the NFL MVP odds boards and continue to close the gap with their play. Lamar Jackson leads a Ravens team in the thick of the AFC playoff race and should put up big numbers throughout the rest of the season. Joe Burrow, meanwhile, faded some on these odds boards following a relatively quiet Week 9. Bengals running back Joe Mixon scored five touchdowns to steal the headlines from this one, but Burrow banked another win and shouldn’t fade too far.
Two longshots to keep an eye one keep climbing the NFL MVP odds boards. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith jumped from +2800 to +2000 at DraftKings after helping his team score an upset win on the road in Arizona. Smith threw for 275 yards and two scores in the win, leading the Seahawks to 6-3 and an unlikely NFC West division lead. Smith and the Seahawks will need to keep this up for him to remain in the conversation.
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa made an even more significant jump in the NFL MVP odds after Week 9. Tagovailoa went from +5000 to +2500 at DraftKings after helping the Dolphins beat the Bears in Chicago 35-32. He went 21-for-30 with 302 passing yards and three touchdowns, and for the year, he’s completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,980 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. He’s 6-0 as a starter this season in games he’s finished and will continue to pad his stats if he remains healthy.