NBA Midseason Futures Update: NY Knicks Odds for Second Half

The New York Knicks won a postseason series for the first time in a decade last season. They’re playing at around the same pace that they did a year ago, but their fortunes in the 2024 NBA playoffs could be decided by the health of one of their stars.

Julius Randle, the team’s leading scorer the past two seasons, has been out since Jan. 27. He dislocated his shoulder in a game against Miami. He’s still being evaluated, so the results may be anywhere from returning before the playoffs to season-ending surgery.

“There’s still necessary steps. It’s a process to everything. I have to weigh out everything, ultimately, and decide from there,” Randle told reporters on Feb. 21. “But right now, I’m just focused on trying to avoid [surgery], obviously, and get back on the court as soon as I can.”

Randle’s status being up in the air hurt New York going into the All-Star break, as NYK dropped five of six. They won their first game back, however, Thursday night over Philadelphia.

Let’s take a look at the NY Knicks odds with some key futures bets for the second half of the season and into the playoffs.

Jalen Brunson has taken over the team lead in scoring at 27.5 points per game. The team is working in new acquisitions Bojan Bogdanovic (16.0 PPG) and OG Anunoby (15.6 PPG), and Precius Achiuwa has filled in admirably for Randle. He’s had a double-double in four of his last five games and had 18 points in the win over the Sixers.

So there are two interesting bets that have similar odds at NY sportsbook DraftKings.

As well as the Knicks have played last year, winning the Eastern Conference would require, if seeding holds, to beat top-seeded Boston in a second-round matchup and then either likely Cleveland or Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Based on the current standings, the Knicks are just three games ahead of Orlando for the No. 7 spot in the East, which would be the first play-in seed. If Randle’s injury turns out to be season-ending, it’s not out of the question that New York could drop a few spots in the standings and end up in the play-in.

Is a drop to the play-in likely? Probably not, but it feels more likely than an Eastern Conference championship, and there’s more value in the play-in bet to boot. Therefore, if you’re going to take a longer-shot bet with the Knicks, we’d suggest the play-in one.

At NY sportsbook FanDuel, the Knicks’ over-under win total is set at 49.5. The odds of the over are a bit more likely, set at -144 compared to +118 for the under.

At 34-22 after Thursday’s win at Philadelphia, New York would have to play at a 16-10 pace to finish with 50 victories. That would be a .616 win percentage, which is just a shade higher than their current win percentage of .607.

True, the Knicks will be without Randle for a significant part — if not all — of the second half. But New York’s defense will keep them in games. The Knicks are allowing 109.7 points per game, which is third-best in the NBA.

Of their remaining schedule, they have eight games against teams with similar or better records than them. That includes two against league-leading Boston. The Knicks also have a four-game West Coast trip that includes games with Denver, Golden State, and Sacramento.

The end of the season features a stretch in late March against four teams likely to be out of the race and potentially tanking: Brooklyn, Detroit, Toronto, and San Antonio.

Given that the Knicks lost five of six going into the All-Star break, 50 wins seems like a bit of a stretch. Especially since the under brings positive odds, we would favor that at this juncture.