NBA Finals Odds Heading Into Game 3: Miami Still Sizable Underdogs

The Miami Heat defeated the Denver Nuggets in Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals to knot the series up at one. In doing so they took home court from the Nuggets as the series now shifts to Miami. Even after their win last night, NY sportsbooks still aren’t expecting the Heat to win the series. They’ll have another chance to change what oddsmakers think on Wednesday when they take on the Nuggets from South Beach.

Denver got a huge performance from Jokic last night, but it still wasn’t enough as Miami’s role players stepped up in a big way. The loss moved the Nuggets to 0-3 in the postseason when Jokic scores 40 points or more. It was also their first loss at home this postseason.

On the Miami side, Gabe Vincent led the way. Vincent knocked down four of his six threes and had a team high 23 points. After a quiet Game 1, Duncan Robinson had his moment in Game 2. Robinson had 10 points, all coming early in the fourth quarter when the game turned in favor of Miami. 

Despite their 4th quarter collapse to drop Game 2, the Nuggets are still favored to win the whole thing. They came into this series as one of the biggest finals favorites ever. Dropping one game didn’t drastically shift the series price.

If Miami is able to take Game 3 that could be what shifts the series odds in favor of them. Denver is favored to win Game 3 in Miami, a place they have had a lot of success in in recent history.

Denver isn’t as big of a favorite as they were in Games 1 and 2. The Nuggets were favored by 9 in Game 1 and 8.5 in Game 2. The Miami crowd is expected to play a factor. It will be their first Finals game in their home arena since 2014. 

These two sides met in Miami on February 13, with the Nuggets coming out on top, 112-108. The Nuggets haven’t lost in Miami since their 149-141 2OT defeat on March 19th, 2018. 

The Heat have been underdogs the entire postseason and they’ve made it clear they don’t care what people think of them. It’s unlikely Denver’s win in Miami this year would hold any weight on this gritty squad that continues to get things done.

Nikola Jokic and Jimmy Butler have the best odds to win the Finals MVP Award. The award, typically given to the best player on the winning team, is voted on by eleven media members at the conclusion of the series. 

Jokic is the overwhelming favorite to win this year’s award. His odds almost align with Denver’s odds to win the series. The star big man has dominated in each of the first two games of the series. He had a 27 point triple double in a Game 1 win and had a 41 point outing last night.

Jimmy Butler has the second best odds to win this year’s Finals MVP. Butler has had some outstanding playoff performances but hasn’t been the same impact player on the offensive end recently. In last night’s victory he had 21 points on 7 of 19 shooting.

Gabe Vincent is a great long shot pick for Finals MVP. Vincent has been the best player on the Heat in the first two games of the series. He’s among four of the team’s undrafted players that get regular minutes. It wouldn’t be inconceivable for him to win Finals MVP, given the Heat’s tendency to rely on their depth. Vincent still holds long odds. A $100 bet on him to win Finals MVP on FanDuel would pay out $4500.