Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez came into the 2023 MLB season as one of the top prospects in baseball. He debuted late last season but didn’t attain nearly enough at bats to lose his rookie qualification. Alvarez began the 2023 season with AAA Syracuse but quickly received the call up to Queens where he has become a big part of the Mets lineup.

The Mets rookie’s recent power surge has helped him close the gap on Corbin Caroll in the National League Rookie of the Year race. He’ll need to keep racking up the long balls to keep his team afloat and to help his chances in this award race. 

Alvarez’s Big Month of May Puts Him In Contention

Francisco Alvarez had a huge month of May. He went 21 for 72 with six doubles and seven home runs. He also added 17 RBI during that stretch. The Mets would love to see their young catcher continue to damage at the plate.

On DraftKings, Alvarez saw his odds drop from +6000 on May 18th to +400 on June 7th. He had +1800 odds on Opening Day. We’re still in the first half of the season so you can expect odds to fluctuate.

The Mets rookie has only walked eight times this year and his on base percentage is .303. During his time in the minor league Alvarez had much better on base numbers. In 112 games across AA and AAA last season Alvarez hit 27 home runs while walking 70 times.

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Other Mets Rookies

After gaining steam in early May Mets third baseman Brett Baty has lost some luster in this race. Baty hasn’t been particularly bad over the last few weeks but as new names emerge in the race, he’s taken a back seat. He continues to be a regular in the Mets lineup and is hitting .237 with four home runs and 17 RBI for the year.

Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga has also fallen off. Senga, 30, was an off-season signing by the Mets. he had previously pitched in the Nippon League in Japan since 2012 and had racked up big numbers before coming across the pond.

At one point in mid-April Senga was the co-favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. The Mets starting pitcher has been up and down to start his big league career. He followed up a 7 inning shutout performance by only going 2 ⅔ in his last start and giving up three earned in a loss to the Blue Jays.

Everyone’s Chasing Caroll

Diamondbacks rookie Corbin Caroll is leading the National League Rookie of the Year race. Caroll, 22, debuted last year in Arizona but did not reach the 130 at bats to lose his rookie eligibility.

This year Caroll is raking. He’s hitting .307 to go with thirteen home runs and 32 RBI. His on base percentage is .391, which puts him at 11th in the entire MLB. Caroll is also tied for sixth in the league in stolen bases, with 18.

The D-Backs rookie left fielder is helping lead a team that has risen to first place in the NL West. His team will be looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Caroll is currently leading the team in WAR, at 3.0.

National League Rookie of the Year Odds, Courtesy of Caesars

NameOdds
Corbin Caroll-205
Elly De La Cruz+425
Francisco Alvarez+1100

Cincinnati Reds phenom, Ella De La Cruz has quickly emerged in this race. He’s only played in four games at the big league level but his tools have quickly captured the attention of the baseball world. 

In his second game, De La Cruz hit a 458 foot missile for his first career home run before following it up with a triple in his next at bat. His electric speed makes him a problem on the base paths as well. De La Cruz is coming on to the scene later then Caroll and Alvarez but will still have a chance to prove that he’s the National League Rookie of the Year.

There’s a lot of rookie firepower in the National League this year. Francisco Alvarez holds good odds as the third guy in the race. He’ll likely need to hit 30+ home runs and raise his average if he wants to win it. A major improvement in the win column for the Mets would help his chances as well.

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