Is There Value in New NY Mets’ Futures Betting Odds?

SBNY » Is There Value in New NY Mets’ Futures Betting Odds?

New York Mets fans have been watching with bewilderment as the 101-win team from 2022 has not been able to recapture that magic in 2023. Originally a top-four favorite to win the World Series in preseason odds, the Mets now have the odds that are more in line with teams like the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers. After sitting around +700 over the winter, you can get a MLB futures bet on the Mets to win the World Series at +2000 on NY sportsbook FanDuel.

The big question is, is there value in those odds? Meaning, are the Mets capable or turning it around and making a run at the playoffs? We’ve looked at their division fortunes, but let’s go a step further into October with our crystal ball and examine the Mets’ World Series odds.

Mets World Series Odds Damaged in Slump Against Weaker Teams

The Mets were 14-7 after a 7-0 win at the San Francisco Giants. As a part of that record, the Mets had two series wins over Miami (who are currently over .500), the Padres (underachieving like the Mets), and at the Dodgers. The Mets continued to be a odds-on World Series favorite at that point.

But a problem that began in late 2022 with a 4-7 stretch against Washington, Pittsburgh, and the Chicago Cubs reared its ugly head for a full month. Aside from a three-game series against Atlanta that saw the Mets win one of three, the Mets played 18 games against losing teams. New York lost 13 of those 18 games, including being swept at Detroit and dropping two of three at home to Colorado.

The Mets were not able to hit or pitch during that span. Counting the Atlanta series, NY scored two or fewer runs in 10 of the 21 games. They allowed five or more runs in 13 of them.

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Mets Struggling Both Offensively and in Pitching

Bright spots on offense include Pete Alonso hitting an MLB-leading 16 home runs and Brandon Nimmo having 50 hits and hitting around .300.

Reigning NL batting champion Jeff McNeil is hitting .282 but had driven in just 14 runs. Francisco Lindor has 31 RBI but is hitting .225 and leads the team with 47 strikeouts. No one but Alonso has more than six home runs this season.

Tylor Megill leads all starters with a 3.88 ERA. That’s not too bad considering he wasn’t projected to be in the rotation at the beginning of the season. Injuries to Jose Quintana (who won’t pitch until at least July), Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, and Max Scherzer necessitated Megill and David Peterson to pitch regularly. Megill has done well. Peterson, on the other hand, was sent down to AAA-Syracuse after allowing 35 runs in 39 innings pitched while posting a 1-6 record. Kodai Senga has shown promise and–more importantly–has been healthy. He held the MLB-best Rays offense to just one run and struck out 12 on Wednesday.

The back end of the bullpen has been good. David Robertson has a 0.95 ERA and is 8-for-8 in save attempts in place of Edwin Diaz, who is most likely out for the season after he suffered a knee injury celebrating a win in the World Baseball Classic in March. Jeff Brigham and Brooks Raley have also been unexpected bright spots in the bullpen.

Is There a Turnaround in Sight?

The Mets have taken some steps on offense to turn things around. Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez, and Mark Vientos have all been called up after hitting extremely well for Syracuse. Vientos and Alvarez both provided a spark on Wednesday night against Tampa Bay. The Rays roughed up Verlander on Tuesday and were looking to set the Mets down for the second straight night. But Vientos and Alvarez both hit game-tying home runs. Vientos’ shot, which was in his first MLB game of 2023, came in the seventh inning while Alvarez rocked an 0-1 pitch for a game-tying, three-run HR with the Mets down to their last out. After giving up two runs in the 10th, NY came back one more time with a walk-off HR by Alonso.

That win was the type of victory that can bring a slumping team together and build momentum. The Mets followed it up Thursday afternoon with a 3-2 win, taking two of three from the team with baseball’s best record.

Is a Mets World Series Bet at Current Odds Worth It?

Not a lot has gone right for the Mets this year, but they stand at 22-23. While the Mets sit six games behind Atlanta in the NL East race, it’s important to note that the Mets were ahead in the division by far more games last year, but the Braves came back.

Looking at this year’s standings, six teams in the NL make the playoffs, and there are just six teams with a record above .500. Taking out the division leaders, here’s how the current Wild Card race stacks up.

Arizona Diamondbacks25-19+2.0
Pittsburgh Pirates23-20+0.5
Miami Marlins23-21
New York Mets22-231.5
San Francisco Giants20-232.5
Philadelphia Phillies20-232.5
San Diego Padres20-243.0

Last year showed us that just making the playoffs is what’s important. San Diego beat the Mets in a Wild Card Series at Citi Field, and Philadelphia won the other one in St. Louis. The Padres and Phillies then both won their respective NLDS series against 100-win teams in the Los Angeles Dodgers and Braves, respectively.

As long as a playoff spot remains in reach for New York, the Mets have the weapons and the talent to get hot in October.

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