The Jets second-year quarterback Zach Wilson remains a polarizing figure in New York, but there’s potential value in betting his player props during the 2022 NFL season.
The New York Jets entered training camp with high hopes for the 2022 season. The second year under Robert Saleh, the team expected a leap from second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. Many sportsbooks anticipated improved performance as well, judging by Wilson’s season-long player props.
But Wilson suffered a noncontact injury in New York’s preseason opener against the Philadelphia Eagles during the Jets second offensive series. While initially feared as a season-ending catastrophe, Wilson suffered a bone bruise and a possible meniscus tear. He’s scheduled for arthroscopic surgery on his right knee and is expected to miss two to four weeks.
The initial timeline indicates there’s a chance Wilson returns in time for the Jets’ season opener against the Baltimore Ravens on September 11th. But this is the young signal caller’s second knee injury in less than a year, so the team may be cautious with their presumed franchise quarterback.
All that said, bettors still see several potentially valuable player props for Zach Wilson’s performance in 2022. Here’s a look.
Zach Wilson Player Props: Passing Yards
Ahead of the preseason, FanDuel listed Wilson’s passing yards player prop yards total at 3500.5. The Under for that wager held +112 odds at the sportsbook.
Over at DraftKings, bettors saw the initial passing yards total for this Wilson player prop set at 3750.5. The Under for that wager saw odds set at -112.
Both of these figures imply a significant leap in Wilson’s performance in Year 2, and that’s not a guarantee considering the rocky start to his NFL career. Wilson posted 2,334 passing yards in 13 games last season and completed 55.6 percent of his passes.
Although the Jets brought in offensive weapons for Wilson this offseason, notably wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall, Wilson will need to be significantly more accurate to approach either of those totals.
Wilson averaged 179.5 passing yards per game last season. To hit the over in this player prop, Wilson must get up over 220 passing yards per contest in 2022, something he did in only four of his 13 games played last season.
Other Zach Wilson Player Props
Zach Wilson struggled when under pressure last season, posting a 16 percent success rate and under four yards per pass attempt. Uneven offensive line play led to Wilson scrambling often and becoming indecisive. Broken plays often led to big mistakes from the rookie, as evidenced by his 11 interceptions thrown in 13 games played.
If Wilson’s passing yards player props sport seeming high totals, so does his passing touchdowns outlook. FanDuel set Wilson’s passing touchdowns total at 20.5, which is more than double his figure from last season (9). The Under for this Wilson player props wager at FanDuel saw -112 odds.
While the Jets are expected to be playing from behind more often than not this season, they’re still slated to face some of the stiffest competition in the league. New York’s projected to face the sixth-toughest schedule of passing defenses in 2022, thanks in large part to their AFC East rivals, which all sport high-end secondaries and pass rushes.
Those defenses factor into another of Wilson’s player props for 2022: interceptions. DraftKings set Wilson’s interceptions total at 14.5 for 2022, with -110 odds for both the over and under. Wilson averaged 0.85 interceptions per game last season, and had he played all 17 games, he likely finishes with either 14 or 15, hence the figure for this player props bet.
DraftKings listed Wilson as favorite (+800) to lead the NFL in interceptions thrown this season.
Wilson’s Injury Complicates Betting
Wilson’s injury in the preseason complicates the season-long player props betting for New York’s quarterback, and many sportsbooks pulled his props for the time being.
He may return in time for the season opener, but there’s no reason for the Jets to rush him. Mekhi Becton, the Jets’ 11th overall pick in 2020, was already ruled out for the season this past week after suffering a fractured knee cap, so the team may be extra cautious.
That said, if he plays a full slate of games, there’s potential value in Wilson’s player props. While the passing yards total seem high, the passing touchdowns and interceptions could be in play. Wilson threw eight of his 11 interceptions in his first eight games, and improved markedly by the end of the year.
New York bettors also see potential value in Jets team betting specials at DraftKings this season. The Jets play their second preseason game on Monday, August 22nd. They host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football at 8 PM.