Best Betting Odds for Bills vs Dolphins NFL Week 3

The Buffalo Bills travel to South Florida for Sunday’s game against their AFC East division rival, the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo looks like it’s the best team in the NFL right now, while Miami rallied for an impressive road win last week. The Bills enter this Week 3 matchup as favorites over the Dolphins in the betting odds. 

This game remains the lone matchup between undefeated teams as both enter 2-0 both straight up and against the spread. The Bills saw their futures odds shorten across the board after Week 1, and they remain the betting favorites after Week 2. 

Here’s a look at the best betting odds for this Bills versus Dolphins game at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.

The look-ahead for this contest had Buffalo favored by four. However, the Bills have looked dominant early this season, so the opening line for this Week 3 grudge match gave the Bills a 5.5-point spread to start. The total has climbed to 52.5 points in some sportsbooks following the Week 2 performances by these offenses.

The Bills swept the season series with the Dolphins in 2021, including a crushing 35-0 Week 2 win in Miami. Buffalo allowed the Dolphins to score just 11 total points in 2021. 

The Bills dominated on Monday Night Football, pounding the Tennessee Titans 41-7, covering as 10-point favorites along the way. The Dolphins, meanwhile, staged a comeback for the ages in Baltimore last week, stunning the Ravens 42-38 despite trailing 35-14 entering the fourth quarter. Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six touchdowns, including four in the fourth quarter, to help lead the Dolphins to victory. 

The Bills have won nine of their past 10 meetings with Miami, including seven in a row. Allen enjoys a 7-1 career record against the Dolphins, with a 106.8 QB rating. Allen has 21 passing touchdowns, four rushing TDs, and five interceptions in those contests. He averages over 53 rushing yards while taking just eight sacks across the eight games.

The Dolphins defense has given up 255.5 passing-yards-per-game (10th-most) and allowed Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to post 318 last week. Baltimore scored 38 points and ran up 473 yards of total offense. 

The Bills rank top-five in both total offense (third-best with 413.5 yards per game) and total defense (second-best with 215.0 yards allowed per game) this season. They also rank top-five in both scoring offense (best with 36.0 points-per-game) and scoring defense (second-best with 8.5 points-allowed-per-game) this year.

In five career games versus the Bills, Tyreek Hill has 37 receptions for 446 yards and one touchdown. So far this season, Hill sports 19 receptions for 284 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 142.0 yards-per-game. 

Buffalo enters this contest with an 11-1 record in its last 12 games where the defense allowed 100 or fewer rushing yards. The Dolphins average just 75.5 rushing-yards-per-game thus far, which ranks 27th in the league. Neither of Miami’s top two running backs, Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, have more than 70 rushing yards this season. 

One trend to consider before betting this opening line in Week 3, conference underdogs of six points or fewer sport a 216-141 mark against the spread since 2019. What’s more, Tagovailoa enjoys an 8-3 mark against the spread as an underdog so far in his career. Miami has also won outright in each of its past three as a home underdog.

The Bills have seen the Over hit in 13 of their last 19 road games, but Miami’s seen the Under in six of Tagovailoa’s nine AFC East start (including both versus the Bills in 2021). The total has hit the Over in 10 of the last 14 games between these clubs, although the Under hit in both games last season. 

The Dolphins have covered in each of the two opportunities they have had with a set spread this year (2-0-0). Miami was 6-3 overall, and 5-4 against the spread, at home last season. But the Bills enjoy a 6-3-1 mark against the spread in the last 11 meetings between these clubs.