The United States Men’s National Team(USMNT) and the Mexican National Team would each be on the outside looking in if the group stages were called today. Good thing they’ll still have to play another because each of them has a chance to salvage a knockout stage appearance. The US will play Iran in a matter of hours, while Mexico will play Saudi Arabia on Wednesday.
We’ll take a look at what each team needs and what their latest odds are.
What the USMNT Needs
The US is currently in third place in Group B, but has looked rather encouraging. To this point, they’ve drawn twice and now find themselves trailing Iran by a point, the team they will now play. A win and the US advance, a loss or a draw, and they will be on their way back to the states.
With Iran looming, NY sportsbooks essentially have it at 50/50 whether the US will qualify for the knockout stages or not. Most do have the US in minus money but it’s not by much. Caesars likes the US side the most, listing the Americans at -125 to advance while Iran is +100. BetMGM has the two teams in a deadlock, listing each Iran and the US at -110 to advance. The bettors like this a lot.
The odds to qualify slightly favor the US which means oddsmakers think the American side is significantly better than the Iranians. Iran has the advantage of being able to go through with a tie, while the US will be gunning for a goal from the start.
Most NY sportsbooks have a US victory in minus money. BetMGM does not, making it a good place to wager on the USMNT.
Among Concacaf teams, the US has looked the best. A group stage exit would be a significant disappointment. They’ll have a chance to avoid such a fate at Al Thumama Stadium at 2 PM EST.
What Mexico Needs
Mexico’s path to the knockout stages is much more complicated than the US’. Mexico has yet to score a goal in the 2022 World Cup, and only has 1 point to show for their first two matches. Luckily for them, they’ll be facing the least talented team in Group C, Saudi Arabia.
The simplest way for Mexico to advance is with a win and a Poland victory over Argentina. Any other result in the Poland-Argentina matchup accompanied by a Mexico win would leave El Tri’s fate up to goal differential with either of the two squads.
Because of Mexico’s difficult path to the knockout rounds, their odds to advance through the group stage are long. Sportsbooks are giving El Tri the 4th best odds to do so in Group C. DraftKings and BetRivers are giving Mexico the longest odds to advance at +275.
Mexico will be facing a Saudi Arabian squad that is also looking for a result that could put them through. The whole world witnessed the team take down a high-powered Argentina team with big aspirations. The Saudis aren’t going to lay down but oddsmakers still like Mexico in this one.
The United States and Mexico are too big of countries to be pleased with just making it out of the group stage. The US hasn’t reached the quarterfinals of a World Cup since 2002. FanDuel is giving the US +430 odds to make it back to the last 8. They’re set to have a favorable matchup in the Round of 16 where they would likely face the winner of Group A.
Mexico’s odds to make the quarterfinal are +1400 on FanDuel. In the unlikely event that Mexico locks up the second spot in Group C, it’s a Kylian Mbappe led France team that will be waiting for them. El Tri has made the knockout stages in the last 7 World Cups. However, they haven’t advanced to the quarterfinals since 1978.
The odds for the United States to win the whole tournament are listed at +20000 on BetRivers. This differs drastically from the +7500 odds FanDuel is giving them. Also on BetRivers, you can take Mexico to turn things around and win the World Cup trophy for the long odds of +65000.
It won’t be long before we find out whether these two Concacaf teams have enough to make the knockout stages. If they do, it’s sure to get their countries rocking and the wagers flying in.