If the 4-1 New York Giants are the NFL’s biggest pleasant surprise this year, one can make the case that their MetLife Stadium co-tenant isn’t far behind. The New York Jets are 3-2 and their NFL playoff odds have improved just like Big Blue’s.
The Jets took advantage of having to play against Miami’s third-string quarterback, rookie Skylar Thompson, on Sunday. The offense, however, also showed up in a 40-17 win over the Dolphins. Under starting quarterback Zach Wilson, they are a perfect 2-0. The victory also snapped a 12-game losing streak against AFC East foes and moved them past Miami (via head-to-head tiebreaker) in the division standings.
More interestingly from a betting perspective, the Jets’ playoff hopes have gone from 29% to 38% after the win over the Dolphins, according to New York Times’ simulations.
Jets’ Playoff Chances Have Improved
Due to the win over an AFC East team ahead of them in the standings, the Jets NFL playoffs odds and over-under win total odds have seen a boost.
At DraftKings, the win total odds went from a preseason number of 5.5 to 6.5 currently.
Also improving are the Jets’ odds to reach the playoffs, again via DraftKings.
| TEAM | CURRENT ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | PRESEASON ODDS |
| New York Jets | +500 | +700 |
But at an expected playoff rate of 38%, 5 to 1 odds represent great value. Looking back at the simulator, we gave the Jets wins against all non-division teams remaining that currently have a worse record than the Jets. For the division games, we had them split with New England and lose twice to Buffalo, leaving the Jets’ Week 18 game at Miami remaining.
If the Jets win at Miami, the Jets would finish 10-7 and have a 97% chance to reach the playoffs.
If the Jets instead lose the final game to the Dolphins, the team will end up with a 9-8 record. That would drop their playoff probability to nearly a toss-up at 45%.
Jets Super Bowl and Playoff Bets Among Sportsbooks’ Largest NFL Liabilities
The Jets, who were underdogs in all five of their games so far, had a run of bets placed on them this offseason. Preseason odds to reach the playoffs were +700 and win the Super Bowl were +20000.
ESPN reports that more bets were placed and more money wagered at DraftKings on the Jets at over 5.5 wins than on any other team’s win total. They also received more bets to reach the playoffs at Caesars Sportsbook than any other team.
Going into the playoffs, the Jets had an implied probability of reaching the playoffs of just 12.5%. The +700 odds were the longest of all teams except Atlanta, Seattle, and Houston.
The Jets play at Green Bay this week. The Packers are coming off a 27-22 upset loss to the Giants in London. The Giants were nine-point underdogs in that game, whereas the Jets this week are only seven-point dogs at Lambeau Field.
