UFC 282 Odds: Previewing Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev and Pimblett vs. Gordon

Sometimes, a UFC card takes various twists and turns before it is finalized, and UFC 282–the final pay-per-view event of 2022–is no exception. We’re taking a look at the odds in the main event for the vacated light-heavyweight championship and a lightweight bout featuring an up-and-coming fighter.

UFC 282 takes place Saturday, Dec. 10 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and will stream live on ESPN+ PPV.

The path to the UFC 282 main event between Jan Blanchowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev certainly defied the odds.

The original main event for this card was champion Jiri Prochazka facing former title-holder Glover Teixeira in a rematch from their June bout at UFC 275. Prochazka pulled out in late November after undergoing shoulder surgery that will require around six months of recovery time. Instead of accepting Ankalaev as a replacement, Teixeira withdrew from the bout as well.

Fortunately for the integrity of the card, Blanchowicz and Ankalaev were set to fight in the semi-main event spot, so it was promoted to main event for the vacant championship.

Here are the odds for the UFC 282 main event, courtesy of BetMGM.

Ankalaev (17-1-0) is on a nine-fight winning streak after losing his UFC debut to Paul Craig via submission in May 2018. Five of the nine wins have come via KO or TKO while the other four went to the judges.

Blanchowicz is the veteran at 29-9. His wins are nearly evenly split among the three methods: nine KO/TKO, nine submissions, and 11 decisions. Five of his nine losses were by decision with two KO/TKOs and two submission losses. He had a six-fight winning streak during his first light-heavyweight title reign snapped in a submission loss to Teixeira in October 2021, but he rebounded to beat Aleksandar Rakic by TKO in May.

Ankalaev has a knack for getting conservative, and that could be the case here in his biggest fight and also one scheduled for five rounds. Blanchowicz is an underdog but a veteran of main event title fights, so we think that will cause Ankalaev to be even more conservative. Instead of taking the Russian to win as a 3:1 favorite, we like taking both to win via the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev via Decision

Englishman Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett personifies the European way of fighting: an aggressive, head-first style that has led to finishes in his first three UFC fights, posting an overall record of 19-3.

There comes a point in every prospect’s career where he has to face the grizzled UFC veteran, and in this case, Pimblett draws Jared Gordon in the semi-main event of UFC 282. The 34-year-old Gordon is seven years older than Pimblett and sports a 19-5-0 record (7-4 in UFC). Apart from his first win in UFC, the following six have all come via decision.

As we mentioned, this is all about a step up in competition, as evidenced by this statistic.

Pimblett has been a bit reckless in going for finishes, and Gordon may be able to evade him, frustrate him, and out-point his opponent to win via decision. He did that exact thing last October against Joe Solecki, and history could repeat itself.

These things were said about another young, brash fighter who racked up finish after finish on his way to the top of the lightweight division: Conor McGregor. So don’t discount Pimblett, and you might want to take a couple bucks on him to finish, but the value play here is the underdog via decision.

Prediction: Jared Gordon via Decision