The Miami Heat are chasing history set by the New York Knicks. The present-day Knicks are trying to prevent it from happening. Down 3-1 in their Eastern Conference semifinal series, New York is favored to keep the series going as the Knicks vs. Heat odds for Wednesday’s Game 5 has NY laying 3.5 points.
It’s a far cry from the beginning of the series when the Knicks were favored to beat the 8-seed Heat in this round and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 1999.
It was that 1999 team that made history by becoming the first 8-seed to reach the NBA Finals. Coincidentally, that Knicks team upset 1-seed Miami in the first round, which started their run that ended against San Antonio in the NBA Finals. Miami is looking to become the second-ever 8-seed–besides that Knicks team led by Allan Houston and Latrell Sprewell–to reach the conference finals.
With things not going well for NY in Miami, let’s take a look at the odds for Game 5 and the rest of the series.
Knicks Favored vs. Heat in Odds for Game 5
After being lucky to head to south Florida with the series even at 1-1, New York was not competitive in Games 3 or 4 and are now facing a 3-1 series deficit. Two of the three remaining games in the best-of-seven series would be played in Madison Square Garden. The Knicks, however, need to be perfect in all three in order to advance.
Taking things one game at a time, the Knicks are favored vs. the Heat in Game 5 odds. Here’s a look, courtesy of FanDuel.
|Miami Heat||+3.5 (-108)||+142||209.5 (-110)|
|New York Knicks||-3.5 (-112)||-168||209.5 (-110)|
After holding Cleveland under 100 points in each of the Knicks’ four wins of their first-round series, Miami has been able to have more success against the Knicks’ defense. Miami has scored between 105 and 109 points in the four games, but the Knicks have been held to 101 or fewer in their three losses. More concerning for New York is that they have been unable to beat Jimmy Butler, who is 3-0 when playing in this series. Butler missed Game 2, which was a 111-105 Knicks victory.
No stat showed Miami’s nature of being more physical than their opponent than the rebounding statistics. In Game 4, Miami out-rebounded NY 44-35. The Heat grabbed seven more offensive boards just in the fourth quarter to keep the Knicks from closing the gap on the scoreboard.
The Knicks need to dig deep and find something to keep their season from ending at home on Wednesday night.
Knicks’ Odds vs. Heat to Win Series Are Not Good
In NBA history, teams have come back from down 3-1 to win a seven-game series 13 times. It last happened in the 2020 “NBA bubble” playoffs, when Denver actually became the first team ever to record the feat twice in a single postseason. When looking at the Knicks’ and Heat’s records in such situations, however, things are bleak for New York.
|KNICKS VS. HEAT SERIES RESULT||ODDS|
|Miami in 5||+145|
|Miami in 6||+135|
|Miami in 7||+900|
|New York in 7||+550|
Overall, the team with a 3-1 lead is 264-13 in series results, which equals a 95.3% conversion rate. Miami’s price to win the series is at -800. With those odds, the probability comes out to around 89%. For the Knicks, odds of +550 come out to about a 15% chance of winning. Using those figures against the 95% conversion rate for 3-1 teams, the value lies with Miami.
Knicks vs. Heat Predictions
While the Knicks should show their desperation in Game 5 and pull out a win, it will be extremely difficult for them to win this series. They have shown to have no answers for Butler, and the Heat–despite being the 8-seed–are a veteran team that was a game away from reaching the NBA Finals a year ago. Our predictions are as follows:
Game 5: Knicks 108-101
Series: Heat in 6