NFL Wild Card Playoff Odds: Bills Big Favorites, Giants Slight Underdogs

The 2022 NFL regular season was like most where it had some things we expected along with some big surprises, and the NFL playoff odds and participants reflect that.

The Buffalo Bills were preseason Super Bowl favorites, and they held the top spot in the AFC for most of the season. They only didn’t get the No. 1 seed due to an unprecedented situation. Their Week 17 game at Cincinnati was canceled after safety Damar Hamlin suffered a catastrophic injury in the first quarter of that game.

The New York Giants, on the other hand, fall into the surprise category. With a preseason over-under win total of 6.5, the Giants overachieved with a 9-7-1 record after a 6-1 start. After clinching the 6-seed in the NFC playoffs in Week 17, NY rested all of its key starters in a 22-16 loss at Philadelphia this past week.

With NFL Wild Card Weekend upon us, the Bills are the 2-seed in the AFC and host the Miami Dolphins Sunday afternoon, and the 6-seed Giants play at the Minnesota Vikings following that game at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday.

Here’s a preview of both NFL playoff games along with the odds for each contest.

The Bills (13-3) were 1-1 against the Dolphins (9-8) this season, playing two close games. The big question mark this time for Miami is the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. As of Tuesday, he was not yet cleared to practice following what was his third concussion of the season that he suffered in a Christmas Day loss to Green Bay in Week 16.

In the two games that followed, Skylar Thompson led Miami to a 1-1 record. After a 23-21 loss at New England, the Dolphins needed to beat the New York Jets at home to get into the playoffs, and they did so with a 11-6 win that wasn’t secured until the final minute of play.

Buffalo, meanwhile, ended up with the No. 2 seed after falling a half game behind Kansas City in the AFC standings. If they ended up playing and beating Cincinnati in Week 17, the Bills would’ve been off this week. After the Hamlin injury, however, Buffalo has another motivating factor in what has been a special season.

Just watch at the team’s first play following Hamlin’s collapse, which was the kickoff of Sunday’s game against the Patriots.

Here are the odds for this NFL playoff matchup between Miami and Buffalo, courtesy of NY sportsbook DraftKings.

With Tagovailoa playing, the two results against the Bills this year were: Miami 21, Buffalo 19 in Week 3 in South Florida and Buffalo 32, Miami 29 last month in Orchard Park. With the odds for this NFL playoff game in double digits, it’s fair to assume that the oddsmakers believe Tagovailoa is unlikely to play. That would tip the scales well into Buffalo’s favor.

Prediction: Buffalo 24, Miami 10

This is a rematch of an entertaining Christmas Eve contest between the two teams, which ended in a 27-24 Vikings victory thanks to a 61-yard field goal by Greg Joseph at the buzzer.

It was one of 11 games that the Vikings (12-4) won by one score–a streak that came to an end with a 29-13 win at Chicago in Week 18.

The Giants come into this game confident after overcoming several mistakes (including a blocked punt, a fumble by tight end Daniel Bellinger, and a key dropped pass by Richie James in the fourth quarter) to push the Vikings to the limit.

Daniel Jones threw for 334 yards in the game, and Saquon Barkley had a clutch 27-yard rushing touchdown on fourth down late to help tie the game.

Here are the odds for this NFL playoff matchup between the Giants and Vikings, courtesy of NY sportsbook FanDuel.

Minnesota has played tight games all year. They have weapons on offense, which include MVP candidate Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. The Giants will be getting some pieces back on defense to counter. This should be a close game, and if you can get New York laying a full field goal, take the value with the points.

Prediction: Minnesota 24, New York Giants 23