How to Handle Jets NFL Futures Odds With Aaron Rodgers in Limbo

SBNY » How to Handle Jets NFL Futures Odds With Aaron Rodgers in Limbo

It’s been two weeks now since Aaron Rodgers stated on “The Pat McAfee Show” that he wants to play for the New York Jets in 2023. Despite that, a deal has not yet been done. If you’re looking to make NFL futures bets on the Jets for the 2023 season, should it deter you that the deal is not yet official?

Jets GM in No Rush to Get Deal Done

Once Rodgers made a bold statement like he did, it puts pressure on both Green Bay and the Jets to get the deal done. In fact, there’s probably more pressure on Green Bay to get some value out of Rodgers before he would potentially holdout during training camp if he’s no longer willing to play for the Packers.

To that end, Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio said that the Packers may no longer be looking to acquire the Jets’ first-round draft pick in exchange for Rodgers.

On the Jets side, they are in no rush to get the deal done. General manager Joe Douglas even said they will not even entertain talks of negotiating with Lamar Jackson. The Ravens quarterback said he’s looking to be traded as well after Baltimore put a non-exclusive franchise tag on the QB earlier this month.

“First of all, Lamar Jackson is a fantastic player, but where we stand is, it would be disingenuous and negotiating in bad faith if we went down that path,” said Douglas, a former longtime Ravens scout. “We have our plan, we have our process and we’re sticking to that. … We’re never going to operate in bad faith.”

NFL Futures Markets Are Proceeding as if Rodgers Will Be With Jets

This limbo has put NY sportsbooks in a tough position. While Rodgers isn’t yet a part of Gang Green, savvy bettors would be looking for potential value in 2023 NFL futures bets on the Jets.

NY sportsbooks are taking that potential value away by operating on the assumption that Rodgers will eventually make his way to the Jets before training camp begins this summer. Here are how the lines have moved for both the Jets and Packers since the day after Super Bowl 57 in mid-February to today.

New York Jets+2800+1600 (FanDuel)
Green Bay Packers+3000+5000 (BetMGM)
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What do the Jets and Packers NFL Futures Odds Say About Rodgers in 2023?

If NY sportsbooks just dropped the odds on the Jets, it would appear as if they are trying to prevent bettors from getting increased value on New York prior to the trade being made. But given that the Packers’ odds were similarly adjusted, that means the experts believe that this trade will happen. If NY sportsbooks are assuming this to be true, you can as well.

Looking at Other NFL Futures Odds for the Jets

The Jets had a strong defense in 2022 and really only struggled at the quarterback position. Even though Rodgers was unable to lead the Packers into the playoffs last season, he represents a massive improvement over the struggles that Zach Wilson went through in the second half of last year.

For the AFC East, the oddsmakers have put the Jets ahead of 2022 Wild Card team Miami but still behind defending division champion Buffalo in the race for the 2023 division title. Here are the odds, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills+135
New York Jets+200
Miami Dolphins+320
New England Patriots+1000

Two other NFL futures odds surrounding the Jets at DraftKings:

  • Jets Win Total Over/Under: 9.5
  • Jets to Make the NFL Playoffs: -135

SBNY Analysis: If the Jets are going to be in the mix to win the AFC East, it will surely take more than 9.5 wins. We would skip the +200 odds on the AFC East and make a substantial wager on over 9.5 wins. And let’s assume for a second that Gang Green doesn’t win the division. A team with only a one- or two-year window of being able to win with Rodgers will go to great lengths to put a team on the field that’s capable of winning at least 10 games and getting to the playoffs in a competitive AFC.

In conclusion, we would hold off on a futures bet for the Super Bowl or AFC East. Alternatively, we would jump on a bet on the Jets to go over the 9.5 win total and to make the playoffs in 2023.

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