We’re just about halfway through the 2022 NFL season, and some favorites are emerging in the odds for NFL coach of the year. Specific to New York’s interests, three of the top-six candidates are the head coaches from the New York-area teams.
Sirianni Favored Ahead of Daboll, Saleh, and McDermott in the Odds
Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni opened the season at +1600, just behind four coaches (including Giants head man Brian Daboll) at +1400. Now after having the Eagles off to an undefeated 7-0 start, Sirianni is the favorite with the New York coaches not far behind. Here’s a look at the NFL Coach of the Year odds at BetMGM.
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Daboll leads the way among New York coaches, guiding the Giants to a 6-2 start after his first year. With New York heading into their bye, Daboll and freshman general manager Joe Schoen checked out a New York Rangers game Tuesday night and found out they’re the toast of the town.
History Shows Overachievers Favored to Win Coach of the Year
If you’re looking for insight into the NFL Coach of the Year Award when checking out the odds, it seems that the coach of a dominant team can win the award, but history favors a team coming out of nowhere to post a strong season.
Three out of the past five winners have been first-year coaches that led their team to a playoff berth. Sean McVay posted an 11-5 record in his first year with the Rams in 2017, followed by Matt Nagy’s 12-4 year with Chicago, and in 2020, it was Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski leading the Browns back to the playoffs after an 11-5 year.
In 2019 and ’21, it was established coaches who led their team to the best record in their conference despite not being the preseason favorite. Baltimore’s John Harbaugh won it in 2019 after going 14-2. Last year, it was Mike Vrabel of Tennessee following a 12-5 season and the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
For a favored team to win the award, it takes a very special season. Bill Belichick won this award with the Patriots just three times, and it was after a 16-0 season and two 14-2 campaigns. Andy Reid, who has been unbelievably successful with Kansas City, hasn’t won the award with the Chiefs. His only Coach of the Year award came in 2002 with the Eagles.
Sirianni Should Remain Favored if the Eagles Get the Top Seed
We would favor Sirianni at this point. Philadelphia earned the final Wild Card spot last year and wasn’t competitive in a first-round playoff loss at Tampa Bay. Even if the Eagles don’t finish a perfect 17-0, they are likely to finish with the NFC’s best record, which should be enough for Sirianni to win the award.
The Eagles’ most difficult games down the stretch appear to be vs. Tennessee in Week 13, and then at division rivals Dallas and the Giants in Weeks 14 and 16. They already have a two-game lead in the division over Dallas (and a win over the Cowboys) and a game edge over Minnesota plus a head-to-head win over the Vikings. The bottom line: Philadelphia will have to lose at least two games and have the Vikings or Dallas be perfect in order to lose the top spot.
Handicapping the Odds for New York’s Coaches
Buffalo, of course, is 6-1 and looking like a solid favorite to win the AFC after their win over the Chiefs two weeks ago. But working against Sean McDermott are the high expectations the Bills had going into the season. They were preseason Super Bowl favorites and remain that way, so outside of finishing with a 16-1 record and the Eagles dropping off, it will be very difficult for McDermott to win this award.
Daboll may very well lead the Giants back to the postseason in his first year with the club, but there’s also a real possibility New York will finish third in the NFC East. Two games at home against Houston and Detroit after this week’s bye are critical for the G-Men.
The Jets were riding high with a 5-2 record going into last week’s home game against struggling New England, but quarterback Zach Wilson had his worst game of the year, throwing three interceptions in the 22-17 loss, and with the Bills coming to town and also playing in the more competitive AFC, the Jets will exceed their preseason win-total expectations, but even a playoff berth is a 50-50 proposition, so we would not take Saleh at this point.
Prediction: Nick Sirianni