The New York Giants are turning into one of the most clutch teams in the NFL, and it keeps improving their playoff odds.
New head coach Brian Daboll’s squad logged yet another fourth-quarter comeback to beat Jacksonville on Sunday. Not only did Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley combine for a huge final quarter, the defense came up big when it was needed most, stopping Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk just a yard shy of the end zone as time expired in a 23-17 win.
Jones, meanwhile, threw and ran his way to another victory with the Giants sitting at 6-1 and solidly in the playoff hunt. While Saquon Barkley is the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year, Jones is making his own case and picked up an award while he was at it this week.
Giants Odds to Make Playoffs Still Good Value Despite Being a Near-Lock
With New York now at 6-1–and just six of the 16 NFC teams being at .500 or better–the Giants’ chances of reaching the playoffs are nearly lock status.
The New York Times’ Playoff Simulator has the Giants’ playoff chances at 86%. Improving those odds, the Giants have a favorable schedule the rest of the way.
Even if they slip at surprising Seattle (4-3) this weekend, if the Giants beat the teams on their schedule that are currently at .500 or worse, that would give them five more wins (over Houston, Detroit, Indianapolis, and two over Washington). Winning those five games would put their record at 11-6 for the season. The NY Times’ playoff simulator then puts their playoff chances at over 99%.
Despite overwhelming chances in real life, DraftKings has the Giants’ playoff odds at -300. That’s a big jump from previous weeks, but for an 86% chance, -300 is still good value.
Here’s a look at how the Giants’ playoff odds have evolved as they have kept winning.
|TEAM||CURRENT ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS||ODDS AFTER WEEK 6||ODDS AFTER WEEK 5||ODDS AFTER WEEK 4||PRESEASON ODDS|
|New York Giants||-300||-225||+105||+180||+225|
If the Giants are to upset the Seahawks this week, those odds will likely take a big jump if New York goes to 7-1. But remember, in our simulation, we have New York a loss this week, and they can still easily get to 11 wins and become a lock to make the playoffs. So if you believe that Big Blue will win this week, take this bet now before it loses the value it has.
Giants Still Heavy Underdogs to Win NFC East
In one of the biggest surprises of the season, the NFC East is the strongest division in football. Philadelphia is the lone undefeated team in the NFL at 6-0, the Giants are in second place at 6-1, Dallas is third at 5-2 (and own a win over the Giants), and even Washington is 3-4 while in last place. If the Commanders were in the NFC South, they would be tied for first place.
Due to the Giants’ loss against Dallas, still having to play them on the road on Thanksgiving Day, and two remaining games with the undefeated Eagles, the oddsmakers have actually lowered the Giants’ chances of winning the NFC East since the preseason. Again, here is a look at DraftKings’ NFC East odds, then vs. now.
|TEAM||CURRENT ODDS TO WIN NFC EAST||PRESEASON ODDS TO WIN NFC EAST|
|New York Giants||+900||+800|
With five division games remaining, New York holds its fate in its hands, but it will be difficult to win against Philadelphia and Dallas–two of the NFC’s top-four teams along with the Giants and Minnesota. And the Giants also take on the Vikings later this season, so while we see NY making the playoffs, it will likely be as a wild card.
After winning as 3-point underdogs in Jacksonville, the Giants go to Seattle again getting a field goal. New York is 3-0 straight up as underdogs in road or neutral-site games this season.