Favorable Home Run Props Odds for Aaron Judge

Watching New York’s Aaron Judge remains appointment viewing for both Yankees and baseball fans these days. The 30-year-old slugger pushes on a record-breaking home run pace more than two-thirds through the 2022 season. Bettors see Judge as the odds-on favorite to win American League MVP, as well as boasting favorable odds with home run props. 

Judge entered 2022 on a contract year, betting on himself after reportedly turning down a seven-year, $213.5 million contract that would have kicked in next season. Seems like the right move for him at this point, considering he’s largely answered concerns regarding his durability and consistent production. 

Judge leads the Majors in homers (43), RBIs (93), slugging percentage (.676) and total bases (261). He’s also stolen a career-high 10 bases so far this season. These number keep Judge as the odds-on favorite for AL MVP while positioning him with favorable odds in home run props. 

Couple Judge’s impressive production with the Yankees’ dominant first half, it’s no surprise he’s running away with the AL MVP. A recent MLB.com poll asked 43 voters to rank their top-5 MVP candidates and Judge held the AL lead with a landslide 37 first-place votes. 

At this point in the season, Judge seems like he’s running away with this award. New York sportsbooks seem to agree. At FanDuel alone, Judge saw his AL MVP odds go from -125 to -420 over the course of a single weekend. 

DraftKings favors Judge even more, listing him with -475 odds to win AL MVP this season. Shohei Ohtani, the impressive two-way player for the Los Angeles Angels, who’s not unlike New York Yankees great Babe Ruth, trails Judge at both DraftKings and FanDuel, checking in with +350 odds.  

Public bettors continued to back Judge during his torrid summer run, taking the majority of betting tickets and handle. Any bettors who got in on Judge preseason look favorably at their tickets right now. At BetMGM, Judge opened the season with +2000 odds to be the AL MVP. 

Perhaps the more intriguing bets at this point all surround Judge’s home run total and whether or not he’ll break MLB’s single-season home run mark. He’s currently on pace to hit 66 home runs, with 56 games remaining in the regular season. Judge connected on seven home runs over his last 10 games, and has knocked 10 since returning from the All-Star break. 

MLB’s single-season home run record belongs to Barry Bonds, who connected on 73 dingers back in 2001 while playing for the San Francisco Giants. Mark McGwire hit 70 homers in 1998 playing of the St Louis Cardinals. Chicago Cubs slugger Sammy Sosa blasted 66 that season. 

The single-season record in the American League stands at 61. Roger Maris set the iconic single-season home run total in 1961 while playing with the New York Yankees. Maris topped the former mark of 60 set by Babe Ruth way back in 1927. 

At this point of the season, Judge needs to hit 31 homers over the final 56 games of the season to break Bonds’ all-time mark. To set a new AL and Yankees record, Judge needs to hit 19. 

Judge sees favorable odds to set a new all-time AL single-season mark. That said, he faces long odds to break MLB’s all-time record. Here are Judge’s home run props odds at a few New York sportsbooks.

Caesars lists Judge’s props odds to be MLB’s regular season home run leader at -1400. He currently has 10 more home runs than the next closest player (Kyle Schwarber, 33). 

Judge blasted 13 home runs last month. His production helped boost the Yankees’ latest World Series odds.

With a similar stretch in August, he would pass both Alex Rodriguez and Mickey Mantle on the New York Yankees all-time single-season list. Rodriguez hit 54 in 2007, while Mantle connected on 54 in 1961, the same season Maris set the franchise mark. Judge’s single-season career-high of 52 came during 2017, helping him win AL Rookie of the Year that season.