After a disastrous performance by quarterback Zach Wilson in a loss to the New England Patriots, the New York Jets’ playoff odds are back on track after a shocking come-from-behind win over Buffalo in Week 9.
The Bills, 11-point favorites on the road, took a 14-3 lead in the second quarter, but the Jets shut down the Bills from there, winning 20-17 on a late field goal followed by a defensive stand against Josh Allen. This includes rookie Sauce Gardner securing the win by breaking up a pass that was heading right for clutch Bills receiver Gabe Davis on 4th and long.
The victory moved the Jets to 6-3, a half-game behind Buffalo at 6-2 in the AFC East. More importantly for Gang Green, it improved their playoff chances greatly.
Jets Provide a Winning Ticket for Over Bettors
First things first, the Jets passed their over-under win total from the preseason, which was set at 5.5. A surprising amount of bettors went with the over. The real surprise, however, is that it took just nine games for New York to allow those players to cash their tickets.
Jets’ Playoff Odds Now Nearly 50-50
After a blowout win over Miami in Week 5 to improve to 3-2, a New York Times’ simulation had the Jets’ playoff odds at 38%. Right now, that number is 65%. In fact, New York would be the top Wild Card in the AFC. They would take on AFC South leader Tennessee in the first round of the playoffs.
Assuming that the Jets’ playoff odds stand at 65%, their playoff odds at DraftKings represents great value.
|TEAM||CURRENT ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS||ODDS AFTER WEEK 5||PRESEASON ODDS|
|New York Jets||+110||+500||+700|
Jets’ Keys to Swift Turnaround
How have the Jets turned into a winning team after a 4-13 season in 2021 and struggling for years before that?
The team may win or lose some games based on Zach Wilson’s performance. But head coach Robert Saleh’s young defense is giving Wilson plenty of breathing room to just manage the game until he can blossom into more of a risk taker.
New York held Buffalo’s lead-leading offense to just 17 points. They sacked Josh Allen a season-high five times. Quinnen Williams has performed well at defensive tackle all season. Additionally, undrafted rookie Bryce Huff pressured Allen in the final drive and forced a fumble, which set Buffalo back with a 19-yard loss. Allen could not pull the Bills out of the hole that Huff dug.
After allowing 27 points to Cincinnati in Week 3, here are the point totals for the Jets defense: 20, 17, 10, 9, 22, 17.
The Jets are tied for eighth in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 19.6 points per game. They’re allowing 312 yards per game, which ranks seventh. They are also in the top 10 in both rushing and passing defense.
What this means is that teams with an elite defense are less likely to have fluctuations in their results. A team that relies on offense can be more prone to bad games.
Looking at the Jets remaining schedule, there are some challenges, but they will be favored in their remaining three home games (Chicago, Detroit, Jacksonville), and one win on the road against some more difficult teams would put them at 10 wins and a very likely playoff spot.
Prediction: Jets to Make the Playoffs, +110