As the certainty of the fight between Jake Paul and Tommy Fury tips in the balance, so too do the sportsbooks’ odds on the favorite for this fight.
A medical condition forced Tyson Fury’s half-brother to pull out of the first fight with the YouTuber, scheduled for December 2021. Since then, the highly anticipated boxing match between controversial social media influencer Jake Paul and professional boxer and Love Island star Tommy Fury has been proposed to be rescheduled once again.
With the bout supposed to be hosted in New York, which has recently become one of the top five US states for bet handling, the iconic Madison Square Garden will host the two fighters and a crowd of up to 20,000.
While both fighters back themselves to win, just how are their odds shaping up in the eyes of the sportsbooks?
When the initial 2021 match was still on the cards, Tommy Fury was the clear favorite at -182, giving an implied chance of 64.5%, compared to Jake Paul’s +140, with a win probability of 41.7%. This means that to win $100 when backing Fury as the winner, you would have had to bet $182. Similarly, a $100 bet on Paul would have seen a return of $140. This seemed fair to favor the professional boxer – who is 8-0 in his professional career – and brother of heavyweight champion of the world, Tyson Fury.
Paul, on the other hand, was understandably the underdog as he hails from a background of social media content creation. After serving his last opponent, Tyrone Woodley, a clean sixth-round KO that shocked a lot of the boxing betting world, however, the sportsbook’s representation of Paul’s odds saw a dramatic shift in favor of the brother of Logan Paul.
As of July the 5th, Paul’s probability to win is at a notably higher Moneyline of +100, equating to a win probability of 50%. Meanwhile, Fury’s odds have been crunched to -130, giving him an implied chance of 56.5%. The additional 6.5% here is the sportsbooks cut of the profit, also called the ‘vigorish’, or ‘juice’.
While this does still leave Fury as the favorite, it is interesting to see that the sportsbooks seem to be losing faith in the professional boxer as the fight draws nearer. This crunch is also amidst an apparent seasonal slowdown for the New York betting industry, which could have played a role in the change.
This will undoubtedly be Paul’s toughest fight so far, facing an actual professional boxer for the first time in his career. The odds are stacked against him. His last fight against ex-UFC champion Tyrone Woodley saw the YouTuber enter the fight as the favorite at -200 compared to his opponent’s +160. This will be the American’s first time coming into a fight as the underdog in the eyes of the sportsbooks and will be an interesting challenge to his strength and mentality.
Fury, on the other hand, has been collecting wins since his debut in 2018, winning his betting supporters money time after time. After taking some time off in 2019 to star in the reality TV show Love Island, the fighter returned as a favorite to the boxing scene to fight Przemyslaw Binienda and succeeded in stopping him within just 62 seconds of the bout.
While the certainty of this fight taking place has been up in the air since the announcement of the original bout back in 2021, the growing balance of the sportsbooks’ odds for both fighters to claim a win here will make for an entertaining watch.
Hate them or love them, it is almost unquestionable that these influencer boxing matches bring more fans to the sport. Controversy surrounds the polarity of their influence and whether it is good for the sport, but many would argue that just bringing in new fans as they do is a positive for the boxing industry. The NY sports betting markets also thrive off about like this, with plenty of debutant betters hopping on the gambling train because of their investment in the fight. This can provide some extra security for the industry amidst the summer slowdown and high NY betting tax rates.