Last year Aaron Judge ran away with the home run race, by hitting an American League record, 62 long balls. This year, Judge has already missed some time and it appears this race is going to be more wide open. That being said, Judge is still among the top candidates along with New York Mets first baseman, Pete Alonso.

FanDuel has a player special listed for who will be the 2023 MLB home run leader. Note* if two or more players are tied for the league lead at season’s end, Dead Heat rules would apply. This means that if two players are tied your winning would be cut in half. If more than two players are tied, your winnings would be proportioned accordingly.

Alonso, Muncy Tied Atop Leaderboard

Pete Alonso and Max Muncy lead the MLB with 13 and 12 home runs. Alonso cooled off after starting the year red hot. His power numbers have dropped in the month of May, but he’s gone deep in back to back ballgames. Alonso led the league in home runs in 2019 when he hit 53. He’ll be trying to do so again this year.

Muncy also cooled off after starting hot. He hit eleven of his twelve homers in April. The Dodgers first baseman has been boom or bust this season. In fact, 12 of his 23 hits have come from the long ball. Hit batting average on the year is .209.

Trout, Vlad Jr. Hold Good Value In Race

Mike Trout has been one of baseball’s stars for a while. Part of the reason why comes from his consistency to leave the yard. Trout has had three seasons with at least 40 home runs, including last year when he only needed 119 games to do so.

Trout has hit 8 home runs through 35 games this season. He’ll need to improve his pace in order to be this season’s home run king. Trout has +1600 odds to have the most home runs this year, meaning a $100 bet would pay out $1600.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is another guy capable of hitting a lot of home runs. In 2021, Vlad Jr. hit 48 home runs, which put him in a tie for the league lead that year. However, he followed up that season by only hitting 32.

Vlad Jr. has hit seven to start his 2023 campaign. FanDuel is giving the Blue Jays first baseman the ninth best odds to be the home run leader, at +2500. Vladdy is a star in this league and is always a threat to go deep. What makes the Blue Jays star an even more intriguing pick is his ability to stay healthy. He hasn’t missed more than two games in a year in any of the last three seasons.

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Regular Season Home Run Leader 2023

NameOdds
Pete Alonso+260
Aaron Judge+700
Matt Olson+850
Max Muncy+1300
Rafael Devers+1300
Mike Trout+1600

Judge Holds Second Best Odds

Aaron Judge still holds the second best odds to be the 2023 home run king. Judge, 31, returned to the lineup last night after missing nearly two weeks with a right hip strain.

Judge still holds the second best odds because of what he’s done in years past. Judge hit 62 home runs last year and 52 in 2017. However, the Yankees right fielder hasn’t homered since April 19th.

Last year, Judge only hit six home runs in April, before breaking out the rest of the way. Judge has already been sidelined this year which hurts his chances. He’s capable of having a breakout month or two but it doesn’t appear as though his odds are favorable enough to take a chance on him on this FanDuel player special.

Other Names In the Mix

Matt Olson has the third best odds to be this year’s home run leader. Olson has never had a 40 home run season but is on pace to do so this year. He’s hit eleven this year, which is one off the league lead.

Rafael Devers is tied with Olson with eleven home runs. The Red Sox third baseman has also never had a 40 home run season. He’s tied for the fourth best odds to be the home run leader this year. Devers has only hit one home run in May after hitting 10 in April. 

Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez are each tied with Trout for the fifth best odds, at +1600. Schwarber hit 46 home runs last year, but has struggled this year, batting .187 with eight home runs. Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has never had a 40 home run season but has fared much better than Schwarber this year. Alvarez is hitting .283 with eight home runs.

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