A game that could go a long way in determining home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs takes place at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, as the Buffalo Bills visit Arrowhead Stadium for the fourth time since January 2021 to face the Kansas City Chiefs.
Let’s take a look at the three most-recent contests:
|KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
|2021 AFC Championship Game
|2021 Regular Season, Week 5
|2022 AFC Divisional Round
You’ll surely remember the most-recent meeting, which was one of the most exciting playoff games of all time. But during the teams’ regular-season meeting last October, the Bills used a second-half surge to crush the Chiefs.
With that memory and the way the Bills have played so far this year, a historic betting streak is coming to an end in Kansas City.
Bills vs. Chiefs Week 6 Betting Trends
You might remember in last year’s playoff game that Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis caught a playoff record four touchdown passes amid a 201-yard receiving performance. Davis has continued that hot streak into this season, especially last week against Pittsburgh, when he had two long touchdown catch-and-runs.
Overall, Davis has gone over his over-under receiving yards total in 10 of his last 13 games. Sunday’s number isn’t out yet, but one you can jump on at FanDuel is for Davis to catch a touchdown pass, which has odds of +120.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen, especially on the road, enjoys rushing the football. He’s hit the over on total carries in his last five away games and has gone over in 13 of his last 19 games for rushing yards. Allen is averaging 45 rushing yards per contest, and FanDuel’s over-under number for this game is 41.5.
Last year, Allen rushed for 68 and 59 yards in the two matchups at Kansas City, and he’s totaled more than 42 yards on the ground in five of his six games this year, making this an easy bet for us.
Finally, the Bills have scored first in 10 of their last 11 contests, including last year’s playoff tilt here. Kansas City, meanwhile, has scored first in three of their five games this year but in neither of their home games so far. With a penchant to start fast, we like DraftKings‘ prop of Buffalo -1 for the first quarter at +115.