A game that could go a long way in determining home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs takes place at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, as the Buffalo Bills visit Arrowhead Stadium for the fourth time since January 2021 to face the Kansas City Chiefs.

Let’s take a look at the three most-recent contests:

2021 AFC Championship Game2438
2021 Regular Season, Week 53820
2022 AFC Divisional Round3642 (OT)

You’ll surely remember the most-recent meeting, which was one of the most exciting playoff games of all time. But during the teams’ regular-season meeting last October, the Bills used a second-half surge to crush the Chiefs.

With that memory and the way the Bills have played so far this year, a historic betting streak is coming to an end in Kansas City.

That’s right: from BetMGM, the 4-1 Chiefs are 3-point underdogs to the 4-1 Bills. Buffalo has already conquered the Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens on the road but lost narrowly in Miami in Week 3. The Chiefs came from behind to top Las Vegas this past Monday night and won the week before that in Tampa Bay. Their only blemish was a surprising road loss at Indianapolis in Week 3.

Bills vs. Chiefs Week 6 Betting Trends

You might remember in last year’s playoff game that Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis caught a playoff record four touchdown passes amid a 201-yard receiving performance. Davis has continued that hot streak into this season, especially last week against Pittsburgh, when he had two long touchdown catch-and-runs.

After getting 98 yards in one play, it would be tough for Davis to top that for his second catch, but he tried his best.
This time, it was a 62-yard touchdown reception. He added a third catch to finish the day at 171 yards.

Overall, Davis has gone over his over-under receiving yards total in 10 of his last 13 games. Sunday’s number isn’t out yet, but one you can jump on at FanDuel is for Davis to catch a touchdown pass, which has odds of +120.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen, especially on the road, enjoys rushing the football. He’s hit the over on total carries in his last five away games and has gone over in 13 of his last 19 games for rushing yards. Allen is averaging 45 rushing yards per contest, and FanDuel’s over-under number for this game is 41.5.

Last year, Allen rushed for 68 and 59 yards in the two matchups at Kansas City, and he’s totaled more than 42 yards on the ground in five of his six games this year, making this an easy bet for us.

Finally, the Bills have scored first in 10 of their last 11 contests, including last year’s playoff tilt here. Kansas City, meanwhile, has scored first in three of their five games this year but in neither of their home games so far. With a penchant to start fast, we like DraftKings‘ prop of Buffalo -1 for the first quarter at +115.

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