The Buffalo Bills host their AFC rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5. The Bills enter as 14-point favorites in the NFL betting odds for this contest.
The Buffalo Bills enter their NFL Week 5 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers coming off an impressive come-from-behind victory on the road last week. The Bills stampeded back from a 17-point first-half deficit in Baltimore to grab a 23-20 victory and improve to 3-1 on the season. Now, the Bills face the Steelers in the most lopsided betting odds spread so far this season.
The Steelers lone win of the season came in Week 1, an upset of Cincinnati that featured four interceptions by the defense and two missed kicks by the Bengals. Since then, Pittsburgh has struggled to score and now looks for an offensive spark from a rookie quarterback.
Here’s a look at the best betting odds for this AFC clash between the Bills and Steelers on Sunday.
Best Betting Odds for Bills vs Steelers
The line for this game started a Bills minus-9 last spring but it’s ballooned in favor of Buffalo since then. Thanks in part to Pittsburgh’s move to a rookie quarterback on the road, as well as the Steelers’ ineffective play through four weeks, the opening line for this contest jumped to 14-points in favor of Buffalo. This marks the largest spread of the 2022 NFL season thus far.
The total for this contest opened between 47 and 47.5 at most sportsbooks, but news that Pickett is starting pushed the action toward the Under. Most sportsbooks list the total at either 46 or 45.5 at this point.
NFL Week 5 Preview: Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bills managed an impressive comeback victory in Baltimore last week, recovering from a 10-point halftime deficit on the road. Rain limited the effectiveness of Bills quarterback Josh Allen, but the MVP hopeful still managed 283 yards of total offense and two touchdowns in the win. The defense came up with big stops in the second half and now faces a rookie slated to make his first NFL start.
Under Sean McDermott as head coach, the Bills sport an 8-3 record versus first-year signal callers. In those 11 contests, the Bills defense feasted to the tune of 30 sacks and 17 interceptions. In his first action of the season, Pickett threw three interceptions.
That said, Buffalo’s secondary remains decimated by injuries. Rookie cornerback Christian Benford is expected to miss the game and safety Jordan Poyer missed practice this week due to a rib injury. The Bills are already without corner Tre’Davious White and safety Micah Hyde.
The Bills struggled to stop the run in Baltimore, surrendering 162 rushing yards and a score. Considering the Steelers expect to start Pickett, stopping Najee Harris and Pittsburgh’s ground game remains a priority in Week 5.
The Steelers defense has injury issues of its own. T.J. Watt remains injured reserve following a Week 1 pectoral injury. Pittsburgh’s 0-3 without Watt this season and 0-7 overall when he misses a game. Pittsburgh has generated just three sacks and three takeaways without Watt in the lineup.
Betting Trends Affect Bills, Steelers Odds
Several trends affect the betting odds for this matchup between the Bills and Steelers in Week 5. Buffalo enters with a 2-1-1 mark against the spread, having been favored in each ballgame thus far. Buffalo is 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five home games.
Pittsburgh upset the Bills in Buffalo last season and have enjoyed an extended run of success in this series. The Steelers enter 11-3 both straight up and against the spread in their last 14 games versus Buffalo. That said, Pittsburgh holds a 1-2-1 mark against the spread this season.
The Bills sport a 4-1-1 mark against the spread in their last six games as the betting favorite and have won five in a road at home. Under McDermott, Buffalo holds an 8-1 mark against the spread following a win of three points or fewer. The Bills come to this one with a 9-2-1 record against the spread versus teams with a losing record.
The Under has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these teams. Buffalo’s seen the Under hit in each of its last four home games versus a team with a losing record, and in five of their last seven October games overall. Pittsburgh’s seen the Under hit in eight of its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Under has hit in 44 of the Steelers’ last 64 road games.