The Buffalo Bills welcome the Cleveland Browns to a wintry wonderland in Western New York for their Week 11 matchup. Weather conditions will surely affect the betting odds in this one.
With the AFC playoff race heating up, the forecast calls for some of the coldest temperatures of the year for this contest. Buffalo comes to this one off back-to-back losses, losing their grip on the AFC East division along the way. Cleveland, meanwhile, hopes to get back on track to make a postseason push before Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension. All these elements continue to affect the betting odds for this Bills and Browns ballgame.
The Buffalo area expects some seriously wintry weather this weekend, with possibly six feet of snow hitting the ground by Sunday.
The NFL continues to monitor this inclement weather system and has reportedly considered moving this game to Detroit. Shifting the game from Sunday afternoon to Monday night seems unlikely considering the Bills are scheduled to play in Detroit on Thursday, as part of the league’s Thanksgiving Day slate.
Here’s a look at the best betting odds for this pivotal Week 11 matchup between the Bills and Browns in Buffalo.
Best Betting Odds for Bills vs Browns
The opening lines for this Bills and Browns featured Buffalo as a 9-point favorite in the betting odds. Some sportsbooks had the spread as wide as 10 points, but betting action pushed the line closer toward Cleveland, likely in response to the weather.
The Point Total has been more affected by the coming weather conditions. Sportsbooks set the opening total for this one between 47 and 46.5, but since then, it’s plummeted, like the projected temperatures, to either 42 or 41.5.
If the league opts to keep the game in Buffalo played as scheduled, this one could turn out something like the last blizzard game in Orchard Park. The snow game between the Bills and Colts on December 10, 2017 featured a 13-7 win for Buffalo in overtime. The quarterback for the Colts in that one? Jacoby Brissett, who will start for the Browns in this one.
NFL Week 11 Preview: Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns
Buffalo found itself, once again, embroiled in a “game of the year” candidate, this time against the Minnesota Vikings. Although the Bills controlled most that game, Minnesota capitalized on critical mistakes from NFL MVP frontrunner Josh Allen, who now leads the league with 10 interceptions thrown.
The Bills (6-3, 4-4-1 ATS) have suffered back-to-back losses in stunning fashion and seem to sleepwalk through portions of their games. These setbacks have resulted in fading Super Bowl odds and now the Bills find themselves in third place in the AFC East.
This week, they welcome a struggling Cleveland Browns (3-6, 4-5 ATS), who rank sixth in the NFL in yards-per-carry (4.9). Stopping the run will be paramount for Buffalo, which allows 122.3 rushing yards-per-game at home. Over the last three weeks, the Bills have surrendered 176.3 rushing yards-per-game, which is fifth-most in the NFL over that span.
The Browns, meanwhile, averaged the fifth-most rushing yards-per-game (158.8). Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing touchdowns (11) and ranks third in rushing yards (904). Cleveland sports a 12-3 outright record in the 15 games where Chubb carried the ball 20+ times and recorded over 100 yards.
What’s hurt Buffalo the most in recent weeks is the lack of second half production from the offense. The Bills have been held out of the endzone in the second half and overtime in each of their last three games. They’ll want to avoid overtime in this one, considering they’re 0-4 in their last four OT games.
Betting Trends Affect Bills, Browns Odds
Several betting trends affect the odds in this matchup between the Bills and Browns. Buffalo holds a 4-1-1 mark against the spread in the last six meetings between these clubs. The favorite sports a 5-0-1 ATS mark in those games. What’s more, the home team has covered in three of the last four matchups.
The Bills have a 10-2-2 record against the spread in their last 14 games against teams with losing records. Buffalo’s 3-1-1 against the spread in its last five home games against teams with a losing record. It helps the Bills that this isn’t a double digit spread.
Buffalo’s seen the Under hit in seven of their nine games this season, and in 11 of their last 15 games following an outright loss. The Under has hit in five of the last seven meetings between these clubs, and in five of the last seven road games for the Browns.