The Buffalo Bills travel to New England for a key AFC East battle with the Patriots. The Bills enter as favorites in the Week 13 betting odds for this grudge match.
As the league’s schedule pushes toward colder weather in December, postseason races are heating up across the NFL. The Buffalo Bills (8-3, 5-5-1 ATS) find themselves in a surprisingly competitive AFC East battle, jockeying for playoff positioning in the conference. Buffalo gets the honor of opening the NFL’s Week 13 slate on Thursday for the second straight week, and the Bills have been set as favorites over the Patriots in the betting odds.
The Bills escaped on last Thursday with a three-point win in Detroit, though they failed to cover the 9.5-point spread against the Lions. Their back-to-back wins in Detroit marked the first time since 2016 that a team scored two straight wins at Ford Field. Now, they head to Foxboro for a Thursday Night Football matchup with the New England Patriots (6-5, 6-4-1 ATS).
Here’s a look at the best betting odds for this AFC East grudge match between the Bills and Patriots.
Best Betting Odds for Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
The opening lines for this ballgame set the Bills as 5.5-point favorites on the road, but betting action quickly pushed those odds back toward the Patriots. Over at FanDuel, the Bills attracted 76 percent of the tickets and 64 percent of the handle, resulting in the reverse line movement.
For the Point Total, FanDuel announced the Over as the most popular play, with 70 percent of tickets and 62 percent of the handle. The Total opened at as high as 45.5 at some sportsbooks, but has since been moved to 43.5.
NFL Week 12 Preview: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Recent history in this rivalry favors the Bills. Buffalo’s defeated the Patriots in four out of the last five matchups, including playoffs. The Bills posted 30.4 points-per-game in those contests and topped 30 points in three out of the five. Buffalo’s defense limited the Pats to 16.4 points-per-game over that span. That said, several Bills players missed practice on Monday due to an illness, including three members of the secondary.
The Patriots saw season-high production from its offense last week. Quarterback Mac Jones completed a season-high 28 passes and a season-high two touchdown passes. He also threw for 382 passing yards, setting a new career-high. Jones managed this against a Minnesota defense that ranked 31st against the pass, though.
Despite that production, the Patriots saw their three-game winning streak snapped by the Vikings, who scored 33 points in the victory. That dropped New England to 0-5 this season when the defense allows more than 20 points. What’s more, the Pats are now 0-8 with Jones at quarterback when their opponents score 25 points or more. It doesn’t bode well for New England that they’re facing a Bills offense that averages the second-most points-per-game (28.1).
Buffalo’s offensive line must account for Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon, who leads the NFL with 13 sacks. New England’s defense ranks second in the league in sacks (37), and Judon’s been especially good at home, registering 10 of his 13 sacks in his five home games so far this season.
The Bills will be without their best edge rusher on Thursday, as Von Miller remains out with a knee injury. He leads Buffalo with eight sacks this season. But the Bills expect the return of both Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa to their defensive end rotation.
Betting Trends Affect Bills, Patriots Odds
Several betting trends affect the odds in this matchup between the Bills and Patriots. It’s a scheduling quirk that these two division rivals are meeting for the first time this season in Week 13, but the Bills hold a 5-2-1 edge against the spread in the last eight meetings with New England. Buffalo, though, enters just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall.
The Patriots have covered in each of their last four games versus AFC opponents, and they’re 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four games following an outright loss. That said, the road team has covered in 19 of the last 28 meetings between these clubs.
The Under has hit in each of Buffalo’s last four Thursday games, and seven of their last nine games overall. The Under is 6-1 in the Patriots last seven December games. What’s more, the Under sports a 20-18-1 advantage in primetime games so far this season, though the Over has hit in eight of the last nine.