The Buffalo Bills get to spend Thanksgiving in Detroit, playing the Lions at Ford Field on Thursday. The Bills enter as the favorite in the Week 12 betting odds.
The NFL’s Thanksgiving Day slate of games starts with a compelling matchup featuring a Super Bowl favorite against an upstart underdog on the road. The Buffalo Bills remain the odds-on favorite to win the Big Game despite not leading their division, while the Detroit Lions enter riding their first three-game winning streak in years.
The Buffalo Bills (7-3, 5-4-1 ATS) had their entire week upended by bad weather, forcing their Week 11 home game on the road. And although they started slowly, the Bills held on to defeat the Browns 31-23 playing in Detroit thanks to a serious snow storm that blanketed Buffalo this weekend. The Bills get to stay in Detroit this week, as they face the Lions on Thanksgiving as the road team in Ford Field.
This game marks Buffalo’s third appearance on Turkey Day over the last four years. The Bills dispatched the New Orleans Saints last season (31-6) and topped the Dallas Cowboys (26-15) in 2019.
Here’s a look at the best betting odds for this Thanksgiving Day matchup between the Bills and Lions.
Best Betting Odds for Bills at Lions
Most sportsbooks set the opening line for this contest at either 9.5 or 10 points in favor of the Bills. That’s no surprise considering Buffalo’s pedigree and the rebuilding nature of this Lions’ team. Detroit’s just 2-3 outright at home this season, though they’ve covered the spread in three of those five games. They’ve yet to be a double-digit underdog this season, whereas the Bills have been favorites of 10 points or more four times already.
Considering the offensive capabilities of these squads, it’s no surprise the Point Total has already ticked up from 52.5 to 54. The Bills have seen the Over hit in two straight games after six consecutive contests going Under the point total.
NFL Week 12 Preview: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
The Bills should feel at home at Ford Field this week, considering they stood as the home team in Detroit in their Week 11 win over the Browns. This matchup with the Lions comes on short rest, but at least the surrounding will be familiar. The Lions have won three games in a row for the first time since 2017 and can’t be dismissed by a Bills team that’s run hot and cold at times this season.
The Lions (4-6, 6-4 ATS) scored a surprising upset victory against the New York Giants, but still see a double-digit spread for this one. Detroit’s offense has regained its early season rhythm, posting 31 points in back-to-back contests. Since Week 9, Detroit ranks sixth in scoring (25.7 points-per-game) and see a league-best plus-6 turnover margin. There issues, though, have come on defense.
The Lions allow 28.2 points-per-game, which is the most in the NFL so far this year. That said, over the last three weeks, that points-allowed average is down to 19, which is ninth-best. Detroit’s defense surrenders a league-high 415.9 yards-per-game and have seen opponents score 30 or more five different times this season. The Bills have put up at least 30 points in each of the last two weeks and five times overall.
Josh Allen was listed as a limited participant in practice on Monday with a lingering elbow injury. Allen played in Week 11 against the Browns despite injuring his elbow in the team’s Week 10 loss to the New York Jets.
Betting Trends Affect Bills, Lions Odds
Several betting trends affect the odds in this matchup between the Bills and Lions. Buffalo sports a 2-2 mark against the spread a double-digit favorite, though 0-1 on the road. The Lions have been an underdog nine times this season (6-3 ATS), but never more than seven points.
The Lions have been good following a win of late, posting a 4-0 mark against the spread in that spot recently. Detroit’s also 6-0 against the spread in its last six November ballgames. The Bills, meanwhile, enter 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight games on field turf, and that includes covering last week in Detroit against the Browns.
Although these teams do not meet regularly, the underdog sports a 4-1 mark against the spread in the last five meetings between these clubs. The Under hit in each of those five contests as well. Buffalo’s seen the Under hit in each of its last five road games, but the Over hit last week in Detroit while the Bills were technically the home team.