Aaron Judge Reaches 50: Updated Home Run Odds on Yankee Slugger to Set AL Record

SBNY » Aaron Judge Reaches 50: Updated Home Run Odds on Yankee Slugger to Set AL Record

After winning five-straight games, the New York Yankees have dropped three in a row to losing teams on the West Coast.

But a bright spot of the Bronx Bombers’ 4-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Monday was Aaron Judge cranking his 50th home run.

After hitting only four home runs over the first 21 days of August, Judge got hot against the crosstown New York Mets last week and has now hit four over the past seven games. As a result, he became the third Yankee (Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle) and just the 10th player in the history of Major League Baseball to record at least two 50-home run seasons.

Judge Back on Pace to Make More History

With the late-August flurry, Judge is back on pace to threaten the team and American League record of 61 home runs set by Roger Maris in 1961.

One of the more popular baseball prop bets this season is the over-under on Judge’s home-run total in 2022. This late-August run has put Judge back on track for on this bet, but odds are still favorable compared to where things stood at the beginning of the month.

SportsbookOver 61.5 on Aug. 5Over 61.5 on Aug. 30
Caesars+120+240
DraftKings+105+250
PointsBet-130+200

Judge was at 43 home runs on Aug. 5 with 56 games to play. With 33 games remaining, Judge would hit 12 more home runs at his current pace, leaving him with 62.

That would put him in seventh place all time and first among players who weren’t from the so-called “steroid era.” Barry Bonds holds the record with 73 set in 2001, Mark McGwire is next with 70, and Sammy Sosa with 66. McGwire (65) and Sosa (64, 63) also hold fourth, fifth, and sixth place, respectively.

Given that Judge’s projection is right on the betting line, the fact that the over is paying 2:1 or better, there’s value in the over. Plus, it’s fun to root for history, right?

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