Yankees slugger Aaron Judge connected on his 60th home run of the season on Tuesday and now eyes favorable odds to win the AL Triple Crown in 2022.
Last night, Aaron Judge joined an exclusive club in the storied history of Major League Baseball. Judge connected on his 60th home run of the 2022 season in the ninth inning on Tuesday night, sparking a five-run rally that ended with a Giancarlo Stanton walk-off grand slam victory for the Yankees. In the process, Judge raised his batting average to an AL-best .316, which means he now leads in all three categories for the Triple Crown.
Judge joins a list of baseball greats, becoming just the sixth player in MLB history to hit 60 in one season. The last to do so is Barry Bonds (2001), with Mark McGwire (1998, 1999) and Sammy Sosa (1998, 1999, 2001), and Yankee Hall of Famers Babe Ruth (1927) and Roger Maris (1961). He’s the fastest Yankee to achieve the feat, and third-fastest all-time.
But not to be lost in Judge’s historic blast, the All-Star slugger snagged the lead in the American League batting average race as well. He’s now poised in a realistic scenario to win the Triple Crown for the first time since Miguel Cabrera accomplished the feat in 2012.
Judge’s Triple Crown Odds
Prior to last night’s performance, Judge sat at -650 at Caesars to break Maris’ record, which is an 86.7 percent implied probability. Most sportsbooks have pulled this prop now that he’s just two homers from setting a new single-season AL and all-time Yankees mark. Judge remains the odds-on favorite to win AL MVP as well.
Back in mid-June, a bet for Judge to accomplish the Triple Crown feat saw +3300 odds. Those odds sported a 2.94 percent implied probability and a $100 wager would net $3300 in winnings. Heading into Tuesday night’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Judge saw +130 odds to win the Triple Crown this season.
Now, the odds for Judge to win the Triple Crown at DraftKings list -115 for Yes and -105 for No. Those odds feature a 53.49 percent implied probability for Judge to achieve the feat and a 51.22 percent implied probability for him to fall short. At -115, a $100 wager would win $86.96.
Over at FanDuel, bettors see a slightly different Triple Crown wager for Judge. FanDuel lists -170 odds for “Either Aaron Judge or Paul Goldschmidt to Win the Triple Crown in 2022.” The sportsbook still has Judge as the overwhelming odds leader for AL MVP at -20000.
Finding positive expected value (+EV) will be difficult in the current market as most sportsbooks inflate the over for props like this. Making the wager at this point would be more about fun and backing Judge’s record-breaking push than anything else.
Judge’s Incredible Season
Judge’s performance this season has him in the running for this historical achievement. The last player to win the Triple Crown was Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera, who did so in 2012. Only two Yankees have ever accomplished the feat, Mickey Mantle (1956) and Lou Gehrig (1934).
With his 60th homer, Judge tied Ruth for eighth place on the single-season home run list and now stands one homer shy of tying Maris’ single-season AL record of 61. He’s currently on pace to finish with 66 homers, the most in a single season since Barry Bonds bashed 73 in 2001 to set the all-time record.
If Judge hit 66, he’d be the fifth player in MLB history to do so and the first American Leaguer to do so since 1961. He’d tie Sosa’s mark set in 1998 for third-most in one season all-time.
Beyond the Triple Crown, Judge could accomplish another rare feat, leading MLB in homers, RBI, runs scored, and total bases. Since 1920, only four players have led MLB in all four categories: Lou Gehrig (1931), Mickey Mantle (1956), Babe Ruth (1921, 1923, 1926), Ted Williams (1942). Mantle and Williams took home the Triple Crown in those seasons.